2026 Feb 25 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2026

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb,
28 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 25/1237Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/1718Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
25/2049Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 10494 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Feb), and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 125
Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 130/132/132
90 Day Mean 25 Feb 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 012/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 011/004-008/003-007/003

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/25/25